A June 5, 2026 memorandum for record from Jon T. Kosloski, Director of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), to the Office of the Under Secretary of War, presents AARO's ongoing analytical assessment of an unresolved UAP incident in the western United States that occurred over two days in October 2023. Released as part of PURSUE Release 03 on June 12, 2026, the document is designated DOW-UAP-D077 and constitutes one of AARO's most analytically detailed public case disclosures to date. 12
Provenance and Chain of Custody
The document is an UNCLASSIFIED MEMORANDUM FOR RECORD dated 05 June 2026, signed by Jon T. Kosloski in his capacity as AARO Director. It was addressed to the Office of the Under Secretary of War at 5000 Defense Pentagon, Washington, DC 20301-5000. The memorandum references the incident as "Incident 1 of 4" within the western U.S. event series, catalogued under VIRIN 260508D-D0360-1052 with an initial public reference date of 08 May 2026. The document was released to the public on June 12, 2026, as part of PURSUE Release 03. 3
The memorandum is organized into five sections: an Executive Summary; an Incident Summary covering morphological and behavioral characteristics; an Analytic Factors section addressing perceptual and measurement limitations; a Current Case Disposition and Hypotheses section; and a Next Steps section outlining planned investigative activities.
Incident Summary
The incident occurred near a sensitive national security site in the western United States, approximately at dusk, over two days in October 2023. Six federal law enforcement special agents, organized in teams of two, observed the phenomena from multiple distinct viewing angles. As of the memorandum's date of June 5, 2026, the case remains unresolved despite extensive multi-domain analysis.
The incident is referred to within the document as the "Orbs Launching Orbs" event. Witnesses described unidentified orange structures producing smaller red structures in rapid succession over the course of several hours.
Morphological and Behavioral Characteristics
AARO's incident summary distinguishes two categories of observed phenomena:
Orange "mother orbs" appeared briefly, lasting approximately one to two seconds each. During their brief appearance, each orange structure produced clusters of two to four smaller red "orbs" in succession before disappearing. Multiple such events occurred across the observation period.
Red "orbs" displayed varied kinematic profiles. Witnesses described seemingly coordinated horizontal motion and apparent changes in altitude. These structures persisted for several seconds before disappearing. In at least one notable instance, a red "orb" remained stationary above a ridgeline for several hours -- a duration that AARO identified as particularly significant to the case analysis.
All observed phenomena were reported as entirely silent. No acoustic signature was detected or described by any of the six witnesses.
AARO noted that the agents' accounts exhibited high consistency across independent observations, with witnesses using similar language and describing similar features from multiple viewing angles. The office assessed this degree of consistency as indicating a shared perceptual basis for the reports rather than individualized or coincidental misidentification.
Analytic Factors
Perceptual Limitations
AARO acknowledged that human optical estimation in low-light dusk conditions faces inherent biological and perceptual constraints. Critically, the reporting agents collected no video footage, photographic imagery, or other technical sensor data during the incident. The case rests entirely on narrative witness accounts.
Despite this evidentiary limitation, AARO held that contextual factors superseded these constraints and warranted continued investigation. Supporting factors included: close alignment of reported morphological features and kinematic profiles with other reported incidents in the western U.S. region; a favorable assessment of the agents' familiarity with their operational environment and with U.S. military systems; and the high degree of inter-witness narrative consistency across multiple viewing angles.
Acoustic Characteristics
The absence of instrument-measured distance data prevented AARO from determining whether the reported silence represented an inherent characteristic of the phenomena itself or resulted from acoustic attenuation due to distance or atmospheric conditions. This distinction could not be resolved on available evidence.
Ambiguity in Phenomenon Count
The memorandum identifies a specific unresolved ambiguity: whether the observations represented a single orange "mother orb" repeatedly launching red "orbs," or multiple distinct orange "mother orbs" engaging in similar behavior sequentially. This question remained open based solely on narrative reporting.
Hypothesis Evaluations
AARO's cross-correlation analysis integrated the agents' narrative accounts against commercial and military flight logs, radar data, spatial estimates, and Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data. The central analytical finding was that approximately 40 percent of reported phenomena lacked plausible explanation after first-stage analysis. Approximately 60 percent was deemed plausibly attributable to military aircraft dispensing infrared countermeasure flares during standard exercises.
Misidentified Military Aircraft Exhaust -- Ruled Out. AARO determined that military aircraft present in the airspace operated at altitudes too high for exhaust to present as orange "orbs." The characterization of phenomena as silent, combined with apparent loitering behavior and the apparent launching of red "orbs," proved inconsistent with exhaust signatures from any known platform.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles -- Unlikely. In at least one instance, a red "orb" persisted for several hours. This loitering duration exceeded the standard battery capacity and operational limits of typical military and commercially available multi-rotor UAV systems. The hypothesis was assessed as unlikely but not entirely eliminated.
Military Aircraft Dispensing Flares -- Partially Plausible. This hypothesis received the most detailed treatment in the memorandum. Historical flight logs confirmed U.S. military aircraft operating in the area equipped with infrared countermeasure flares deployed during standard exercises. Reported morphology and certain behavioral features aligned with characteristics of known military infrared flares, and position relative to observers, perceived direction of travel, and observation timing correlated with historical radar and ADS-B data for approximately 60 percent of reported activity. However, contradictory factors applied to the remaining 40 percent: radar and ADS-B data showed no known aircraft active within the observers' estimated line-of-sight during those periods, and in at least one case, a red "orb" remained stationary for several hours -- physically incompatible with the burn-time and descent rate of any known military flare. The agents, professionally familiar with military flare visual characteristics, stated that the phenomena did not exhibit standard flare characteristics. AARO noted that specific flare types carried by operating aircraft differed from standard illumination flares, adding further complexity to the analysis.
U.S. Capability Deconfliction / Blue Force -- Plausible but Inconclusive. AARO conducted a comprehensive review of programs and activities across the Department of War and the Intelligence Community. The time, date, location, and reported features aligned with certain U.S. military technologies. However, historical records proved inconclusive as to whether those specific technologies were present at the time and place of the incident. While each reported characteristic individually shared features with known U.S. military systems, no single Blue Force capability fully accounted for all reported phenomena characteristics.
Foreign Intelligence Activity / Red Force -- Highly Unlikely. Following consultation with Intelligence Community partners, AARO found that reported kinematic profiles diverged significantly from those of known adversary systems. The office assessed this hypothesis as highly unlikely, while acknowledging an inability to definitively rule out deployment of entirely novel foreign collection platforms.
Phenomenological and Environmental Factors -- Unlikely. AARO consulted subject matter experts across meteorology, atmospheric science, and space-based phenomena. Weather conditions were assessed as generally inconsistent with rare atmospheric events such as ball lightning or sprites. Conditions were otherwise described as generally clear with seasonable temperatures and typical light pollution levels. The agents' diverse viewing angles made misidentification of celestial bodies highly unlikely; instances of reported stationary loitering made such misidentification somewhat more plausible though still unlikely. Attribution to meteors or bolides was assessed as inconsistent with the reported multi-hour persistence of at least one red "orb," and bolides typically exhibit characteristic tails inconsistent with the reported "mother orb" morphology.
Unrecognized Technology -- Pending. Given otherwise unexplained kinematic and physical characteristics, AARO's preliminary exclusion-based hypothesis assessed that unrecognized technology may account for up to 40 percent of reported phenomena. This assessment was explicitly described as provisional, based solely on narrative testimony and the elimination of competing hypotheses, and was unsubstantiated by technical data or physical evidence.
Next Steps
AARO's memorandum outlined a comprehensive investigative agenda for the case. Planned activities include integrating scientific modeling capabilities from partner Federal Government agencies; engaging scientific and academic institutions; employing multi-domain, multispectral data exploitation techniques; continuing to update analytic tradecraft to incorporate best scientific and intelligence analysis practices; broadening relationships with partners possessing relevant technical and domain expertise; enhancing ability to efficiently deconflict Blue and Red Force programs and activities; optimizing data collection protocols to incorporate more diverse sources; and remaining prepared to revise the assessment if additional intelligence and data become available. AARO assessed that the reported features remained sufficiently anomalous to justify sustained investigative effort.
What The Record Supports
This memorandum establishes that AARO conducted a structured, multi-hypothesis analysis of a two-day October 2023 incident near a sensitive western U.S. national security site, based on accounts from six credentialed federal law enforcement agents. It confirms that approximately 60 percent of reported activity was assessed as plausibly attributable to military aircraft dispensing infrared countermeasure flares during exercises, and that the case as a whole remains formally unresolved as of June 2026.
The record does NOT establish that the remaining 40 percent of phenomena represents any specific technology, threat, or non-human origin. AARO's "unrecognized technology" hypothesis is explicitly described as a residual, exclusion-based placeholder that is unsubstantiated by physical evidence or technical sensor data. No imagery, corroborating radar returns during critical observation periods, or physical evidence was collected. The document does not identify the specific sensitive site, the agency employing the six witnesses, or the specific U.S. military technologies evaluated under the Blue Force hypothesis. The label "Orbs Launching Orbs" is a colloquial descriptor drawn from witness accounts, not an official scientific or intelligence classification of the phenomena.